Ipswich Town: Should Christian Walton replace Arijanet Muric in goal?

Stoppage time at the GTech Community Stadium on Saturday afternoon was horrible to watch from an Ipswich Town perspective.

Down to 10 men and plagued by an injury crisis, manager Kieran McKenna would have been delighted to take a point. It looked like Liam Delap’s late strike was going to be the grand finale of a pulsating 3-3 draw, but it wasn’t to be.

Bryan Mbeumo celebrates after his late cross gave Brentford a 4-3 win on Saturday (Image: PA) Bryan Mbeumo, who was kept surprisingly quiet throughout the game, floated an overhit cross into the box. It bounced just behind Dara O’Shea, who turned and raised his arms high as goalkeeper Aro Muric stood rooted to the spot. A split second later, he saw the ball bounce up and past him into the back of the net.

It was a gutting moment for Town, one where the blame will largely fall on Muric’s shoulders. But this isn’t the first time we’ve seen an incident like this cost Town in the Premier League. Some fans are now questioning whether he should be dropped for back-up Christian Walton.

Let’s start by looking at the reasons behind that. There’s no denying that his start to life at Portman Road hasn’t been ideal. On his league debut, away against former club and defending champions Manchester City, he made two errors as Town were beaten 4-1.

For the Cityzens’ second goal, he was shoved off the ball by Savinho before Kevin de Bruyne slotted it into an empty net. Two minutes later, he came rushing out to try and beat Erling Haaland to a ball over the top, allowing the Norwegian striker to go around him and score with ease.

These aren’t isolated incidents. Against West Ham, he gave the ball away after a heavy backpass from Ben Johnson, and Jarrod Bowen scored the Hammers’ third goal to effectively kill off the game. Three weeks later, we had the Brentford debacle.

Muric has been criticised for his mistakes since joining the Blues (Image: Ross Halls)

There have been other nervy moments. We’ve seen shots that defenders have had to clear off the line, poor distribution and uncomfortable periods on the ball. He doesn’t look overly assured, which is something that Ipswich fans aren’t used to with their goalkeepers. That’s why there’s a desire to see Walton back in the starting lineup.

The context here has to be the Premier League. Muric has played at this level before, so he doesn’t get the same benefit of the doubt that the likes of Jacob Greaves and Leif Davis might ahead of him. That being said, it’s also not easy for him to play behind a defence that isn’t overly solid and are yet to gel together.

At full strength, McKenna would likely play Davis and Axel Tuanzebe as full-backs, either side of Greaves and Dara O’Shea. How many times have we seen that? Three times – the draws against Brighton, Southampton and Aston Villa.

So it doesn’t help that Town have had to chop and change the players in front of him. The only ever-present member has been Davis. It may not seem like much, but changing Woolfenden for O’Shea or Johnson for Tuanzebe can have a big impact when it comes to chemistry.

Starting centre-back Jacob Greaves is one of Town's defensive injuries (Image: Ross Halls) Right now, Town have the most first-team injuries in the division. And their defence has been impacted more than any other area of the pitch.

How does Muric stack up to other Premier League goalkeepers, though? Well, it’s still quite early to use stats to paint a proper picture, but they show him as a mid-level shot-stopper. His save percentage of 64.7% ranks him 16th in the division, but above the likes of Southampton’s Aaron Ramsdale (63%), Everton’s Jordan Pickford (60%), West Ham’s Alphonse Areola (58.8%) and Wolves’ Jose Sa (55.6%).

He averages 4.1 saves per game, level with Ramsdale and Chelsea’s Robert Sanchez and only behind Brentford’s Mark Flekken (4.9), Leicester’s Mads Hermansen (4.6) and Newcastle’s Nick Pope (4.4).

The Kosovo international averages 4.1 saves per game (Image: Ross Halls)

The main stat that’s used to judge the quality of a goalkeeper is goals prevented, which is calculated as xGOT (expected goals on target) conceded from shots on target faced, minus goals conceded. In layman’s terms, it shows how many goals a goalkeeper would be expected to concede against how many they’ve actually conceded.

Manchester United’s Andre Onana leads the way in this one with 3.4, showing that the Red Devils would be far worse off without him. Muric, on the other hand, has 0.4. While it’s not incredible, it places him 12th in the league ahead of big names like Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martinez and Arsenal’s David Raya.

This all shows that Muric is essentially an average Premier League goalkeeper. He certainly isn’t one of the best but is far from the worst. As with any stats, however, there are caveats.

It’s worth remembering that the 25-year-old’s display against Brighton – an immense performance that saw Town take a point in Sussex – will make his numbers look better. This was an incredible showing, but also a one-off. He’s made quite a few vital saves that have helped Town secure positive results - against Southampton and Aston Villa in particular - but nothing like he did in the stalemate against the Seagulls.

On top of that, he might not be facing the same high volume of quality shots because of game state. The Blues have spent a lot of time this season behind and chasing games. As a result, their opponents won’t be piling on pressure to try and score more goals, thus forcing him into action and impacting his stats. If they did, the numbers could swing either way.

Of course, the eye test is imperative here. You can’t throw stats around with no context, and in this case, that works against Muric. The extenuating circumstances of Town’s situation act in his favour, but the individual errors are concerning.

Town players reacts after Brentford's late winner (Image: PA) That being said, aside from the mistake at Brentford, have they cost Ipswich any points? Probably not. Even then, O'Shea could have done more from preventing the goal from going in. Muric wasn't the only one to blame in that moment, nor in the build-up to Manchester City's goals or West Ham's third. There's a collective responsibility at the back. He is, of course, a big part of that, but it's not just him.

As for his distribution, it’s certainly an area that he can improve on, but I feel like there are signs that it’s trending in the right direction. Being a goalkeeper in this team is hard – it’s demanding. Not only is there a very set style of play, but it’s being implemented in the toughest league in the world. As a result, it’s almost impossible to compare Muric and Vaclav Hladky, who helped the Blues secure promotion before leaving for Burnley. The levels are totally different, and Hladky was often criticised in the Championship last season too.

It's also hard with Walton, who has never been a regular in the Premier League. He did, however, start in Town’s Premier League opener against Liverpool. He didn’t put in an incredible performance, but he was certainly solid. There’s an argument that he did nothing to deserve being dropped from the side.

Christian Walton started for Town in their Premier League opener against Liverpool (Image: Ross Halls)

That may be the case, but there’s also little to say that he necessarily deserved a run in the team either. This isn’t like last season, where Walton was sidelined for a lengthy spell and Hladky earned the no.1 shirt with a string of really strong performances. This has been Muric’s shirt for eight of the nine games this season.

How do we know that Walton would be a guaranteed upgrade on Muric? There’s no real basis for that argument. He hasn’t played regular football for Town above League One level, which was back in 2022/23. One match against Liverpool isn’t a big enough sample size to suggest he’s going to be an improvement in the Premier League.

Taking Muric out of the team and starting Walton would be a huge blow for the Kosovo international. Who knows how he’d handle that mentally? It’d be really tough for him to come back from that, as it’d likely destroy his remaining confidence after a really tough run.

For me, it all points towards Muric being the best option for Ipswich – at least for now. Like the rest of the team, he’ll be expected to improve as the season goes on. If he doesn’t, there’s a clearer argument for him to be dropped from the starting lineup.

Alex believes Kieran McKenna will stick with Muric - and he thinks that's the right call (Image: Steve Waller) McKenna isn’t the kind of manager to give up on a player, so he’ll almost certainly be back between the sticks against Leicester. As mentioned, he’s probably going to be low on confidence after his error and the resulting criticism – some of which was fair, some of which was not.

If that’s the case, unity and support will be vital. Getting on his back for every nervous moment or wayward pass won’t help anyone, and he’ll know that all his actions will be scrutinised to a greater degree because of his form.

Internally, his team-mates and the coaching staff will be gathering around him and telling him that he’s capable. He needs the same from the supporters if McKenna is going to persevere with him as his first-choice goalkeeper.