Ipswich Town head to South London to face Millwall at The Den this evening. Alex Jones, who used to cover the Lions, takes a closer look at Joe Edwards' side.
Has the change worked?
Gary Rowett was one of the most experienced managers in the Championship heading into the season, having managed Birmingham City, Derby County and Stoke City before taking the Millwall job in 2019.
It’s hard to argue that he didn’t do an incredible job, taking a club with one of the lowest budgets in the division to the edge of the play-off places. They ultimately fell short every time, and last season’s devastating collapse felt like the end of the cycle.
The Lions and Rowett both persevered, but they called it quits in October 2023. Fan sentiment was never overly positive towards the 49-year-old, partially due to his defensive style of play, which is perhaps why the South Londoners looked to Edwards
He arrived at SE16 with no senior management experience, although he was part of Chelsea’s backroom team when they won the Champions League back in 2021 under Thomas Tuchel.
His attacking ideology is a clear breath of fresh air, which could certainly be beneficial in the long-term, but Millwall’s squad are used to playing under Rowett. This is a drastic shift which will take time to work, but with five defeats in six games, it remains to be seen how much time Edwards will be afforded.
Mentality issues
In the Championship, no team has scored the first goal in a game more than Leicester City and Southampton, who currently occupy the automatic promotion places. The third team on that list is Millwall, who are 18th in the league table.
The Lions tend to start games incredibly well, playing with intensity and often taking the lead. Then something seems to click in the players’ minds. What happens?
Well, so far this season, they’ve managed to surrender a whopping 24 points from winning positions - more than anyone else in the league. Although it could be a tactical issue, the way their performance levels drop like a stone suggest it’s nervousness. This is a squad that’s lost some of its steel.
That’s not necessarily a surprise. There haven’t been any big incomings or outgoings in the last two transfer windows, meaning that the same players who suffered that big collapse at the end of last season are still at the club.
It’s not easy to recover from a game where you’re 3-1 up and cruising towards the top six, only to concede three goals in the second half, lose 4-3 and finish eighth. That’s exactly what they did against Blackburn Rovers on the final day of last season, and it could certainly be playing a part in their current issues.
Edwards needs to figure out how to turn it around quickly.
The Den ain’t what it used to be
‘Millwall is a tough place to go’. Those words have been muttered by many managers and pundits over the years.
That’s mostly been the case too. The hostile atmosphere makes it a horrible stadium for opponents to play, and the Lions finished last season with the eighth best home record in the division as a result, winning 11 of their 23 games in South Bermondsey.
That’s changed this season. In terms of home form, Millwall rank 21st in the league. They’ve won just four home matches - three of which came against relegation-threatened sides in Stoke City, Rotherham United and QPR. The other was against Norwich City.
What’s astonishing is that Millwall’s away form was arguably one of the big things that cost them a place in the top six last season, but this season they’ve accrued more points on the road than they have on home soil.
It’s a unique quirk that’s hard to explain, but it shows that a lot has changed in a short period of time. Unfortunately for Millwall, not for the better.
Relegation concerns
Millwall were treading water in the final days of Rowett’s reign, but they began to slip down the table in the early days of Edwards’ tenure despite a 4-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday in his first game. A winless run of seven games, which included four defeats, sparked some real concern.
But he began to turn it around. The aforementioned wins against QPR and Norwich got supporters back on side, and they were singing his praises en masse after the Lions’ 1-0 win away at Bristol City on New Year’s Day.
Now they’re right back where they started with yet another poor run of form. They head into tonight’s game having lost five of their last six games in all competitions - drawing Preston North End in the other match.
In most seasons, this patch of form would be alarming but nothing more. Millwall clearly hired Edwards on the basis that he could use this season to find his feet, but with QPR and Sheffield Wednesday showing a remarkable improvement, there could still be two relegation spot open to the teams above. Millwall are certainly one of the teams in the firing line.
Last time they were in League One, it took them just two attempts to get back up again, but the third tier is much stronger now than it has been in recent years. They can’t afford to drop back down again. Ipswich are one of many teams who know how hard it can be to escape.
Key players
Millwall have two players on five goals for the season. Scottish striker Kevin Nisbet has been ruled out with a ‘pretty serious’ hamstring injury, leaving Zian Flemming as the club’s talisman.
The Dutchman came through Ajax’s academy before having spells at PEC Zwolle, NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard. The Lions signed him for a reported fee of just £1.7 million, and he ended up finishing his first campaign in English football with 15 league goals.
Burnley attempted to sign him in the summer, with numerous bids nearing the £15 million mark before they dropped their interest. Seeing as his performance levels have dropped significantly this season, Millwall may regret not cashing in.
They still have significant firepower elsewhere. Tom Bradshaw may not hit the 17 goals he managed last season, but he’s found the back of the net four time and has three assists to his name too. Michael Obafemi, who joined the club on loan in January, will be hoping to rekindle his red-hot form from his Swansea City days.
The wildcard is 18-year-old Romain Esse, who made his first-team debut last year. He hasn’t been a regular under Edwards, but scored in Millwall’s 2-1 defeat to Coventry on Sunday afternoon. The England youth international reportedly received interest from Burnley and Hull City last month, but he decided to stay at his boyhood club.
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