Ipswich Town: Supercomputer predictions for final Championship table

Football statisticians at BetVictor built the predictive supercomputer and then used it to simulate the upcoming campaign before a ball was kicked.

The projection has had Town finishing in the top two during each of the last two international breaks but the latest updated table, while still having the Blues second, has Leeds United closing the gap in third.

Last month, it had Town second on 89 points, with Leeds six points back - but now it's projecting just a four point gap between the sides in May.

Leicester remain champions in every simulation, with the latest predictions having Leeds, Middlesbrough, Southampton and Sunderland in the top six.

Norwich are all the way down in 18th, while Rotherham, Sheffield Wednesday and QPR are relegated.

You can see the latest BetVictor predicted table here...

The latest predicted final Championship table from BetVictor (Image: BetVictor)Meanwhile, statisticians at number crunchers Opta say that the Blues are significantly outperforming where they should be in the standings so far.

Their model suggests Town should actually be in third spot now, behind both Leicester and Leeds, with nine fewer points than they have currently plundered.

They explained: "The Opta supercomputer is very strongly predicting Leicester will get a top-two finish to achieve automatic promotion (94.8%), and they ended the season in first place in 79.9% of the 10,000 simulations.

"Despite being level with them on points, Ipswich only won promotion in 54% of the simulations.

"That’s partly down to team strength, but some of the difference we’re seeing is due to the underlying performances across the opening 16 games.

"According to our expected points model, which essentially distils the underlying numbers into an ‘expected’ league table, Ipswich and Leicester’s nearest rivals in the table, Leeds United, have accrued a points tally that matches that of their performances on the pitch.

"However, both Leicester (eight points) and Ipswich (nine) have significantly outperformed their expected points totals from their 16 games, based on underlying performances in attack and defence.

"Has luck been on their side, and will that luck run out? Conversely, Leeds’ actual points tally of 31 is running alongside expectation."

However, after all that, Opta do still have Town finishing in the top two.

They explain: "The good news for both Leicester and Ipswich is that winning as many as 39 points from your opening 16 games in a Championship season means you’re likely to get promoted – unless you are Watford.

"Only two of the 23 teams to have won 35 points or more from their first 16 games in a second-tier season since 1989-90 have failed to win promotion – both were the Hornets in 2000-01 and 2007-08.

"Of the other 21 sides, 19 won automatic promotion and the other two were promoted via the playoffs."