Ipswich Town have slipped to fourth in the League One table after winning four of their last 15 games. STUART WATSON analyses the drop in form.
TALE OF TWO THIRDS
Town’s record over the opening 16 league matches was W11 D3 L2 Pts 36. An average of 2.25 per game is title-winning form.
The Blues’ record over the last 15 league games is W4 D9 L2 Pts 21. An average of 1.4 per game is midtable form.
Kieran McKenna’s men are now closer to seventh-place Wycombe (seven points) than they are to second-place Sheffield Wednesday (eight points). Both those clubs have a game in hand to come.
For context, 21 points from 15 is fewer than previous managers Paul Cook (23) and Paul Lambert (22) took from their final 15 league games in charge.
The 15-game form table in League One reads: Sheff Weds (2nd) 35pts, Derby (5th) 32pts, Barnsley (6th) 32pts, Bolton (3rd) 31pts, Wycombe (7th) 30pts, Plymouth (1st) 29pts, Shrewsbury (8th) 26pts Peterborough (9th) 22pts, Ipswich (4th) 21pts.
Only four clubs – Portsmouth (3), Accrington (2), Cambridge (2) and Forest Green (2) - have won fewer games than Town over the last 15.
STRUGGLES WITH THE LOW BLOCK
Several teams tried to go toe-to-toe in an open game of football against Town in the opening few months of the season and got taken apart.
Then Mark Kennedy’s Lincoln came to Portman Road on October 15, parked the bus, nicked a goal and defended for their lives to see out a 1-0 win.
Since then, Cheltenham, Lincoln (again), Cambridge and Bristol Rovers have deployed similar tactics to frustrate and get results.
Sit in a narrow low block, funnel Town out wide and anticipate low cut-backs into the heart of the box. Then play on a fast counter, get high balls into the area and don’t be afraid to shoot from range.
Ipswich dominate possession in these games, but too often the tempo hasn’t been quick enough to pull organised opposition out of shape.
There’s definitely an argument that Town have become far too predictable.
LACK OF RUTHLESSNESS
Here are some key stats from select games Town have dropped points in...
Lincoln (1-0 home loss): 77% possession, 33 shots, five on target.
Cheltenham (1-1 home draw): 75% possession, 31 shots, four on target.
Wycombe (1-0 away loss): 71% possession, 20 shots, six on target.
Lincoln (1-1 away draw): 77% possession, 20 shots, eight on target.
Bristol Rovers (0-0 away draw): 66% possession, 21 shots, seven on target.
For all the talk about being Town being too predictable and ‘needing a Plan B’, they do create plenty of chances and they also tend to limit the opposition’s number of opportunities too.
Maybe the football principles are right, it’s just that Town simply haven’t been clinical enough in both boxes.
UNHELPFUL NARRATIVE?
During the first half of the season we heard McKenna talking about referees, bad luck and even the weather conditions.
Marcus Harness’ disallowed goal against Barnsley was a joke. Fleetwood and Plymouth both scored thanks to big deflections. The Oxford game should never have finished in those conditions.
I do wonder though if all those excuses – no matter how valid – led to a bit of complacency creeping in among the players.
Perhaps too much attention was placed on external reasons for the fine margins shortfalls rather than turning that analytical eye inwards enough?
PSYCHOLOGICAL BLOWS
Maybe that incredible period of stoppage-time at Charlton on October 29 did more psychological damage than we realised?
Had that game finished 4-2, after goals in 90+1 and 90+4, then everyone – players and fans – would have been feeling on top of the world. Some powerful momentum could really have snowballed. Belief would have been rock-solid.
Instead, a freak finish, in which Charlton barely touched the ball but scored twice on 90+6 and 90+9, led to the first talk about this group of players not dealing with the emotions of the game well enough.
The go-to positive memories of finishing off the likes of Shrewsbury (3-0 away), Accrington (2-0 away) and Cambridge (3-0 at home) late on have been superseded by examples of missed opportunities, dropped leads and stoppage-time sucker punches.
An accumulation of painful moments have, I’m sure, clouded thoughts at the very moments when clear heads are required.
Recently, in the games against Cambridge and Sheffield Wednesday, we’ve seen the Blues badly lose their composure during 5-10 minute mega wobbles.
Confidence has been chipped away at. And the first crack opened at The Valley.
LACK OF CONTINUITY
Kieran McKenna has named an unchanged team just once this season.
Four different centre-halves have been used in three combinations since the start of the calendar year.
The longest run of starts for a central striker this season has been three (Freddie Ladapo, December).
After a spirted fight back from two goals down against Sheffield Wednesday last Saturday, four changes were made to the team at Bristol Rovers on Tuesday night.
Not only is the starting line-up constantly rotated, but so is the bench. Four or five subs are regularly used in games.
The main reason for always freshening it up is to allow Ipswich to maintain high intensity during busy schedules.
The secondary reason is to keep a large squad happy and motivated. McKenna is trying to make everyone feel like minutes are not far away.
Right now, however, you’d have to say those benefits are being outweighed by the constant disruption to chemistry and flow.
McKenna has spoken about how it took Ladapo several months to get to grips with his team’s style of play and says that new front men George Hirst and Nathan Broadhead are now going through the same adaption process.
Unfortunately, time is not on Town’s side as the games rapidly continue to be ticked off.
ENGINE ROOM PROBLEMS
Might things have been different had it not been for significant injuries to experienced central midfielders?
Dominic Ball arrived last summer with significant Championship experience. A physical, hard-working leader, I was expecting him to come to the fore during the tough winter months. But he was ruled out for the season in November.
Panutche Camara had been one of Plymouth’s best players last season. Town prised him away from their promotion rivals to add a different set of qualities to their midfield. But the non-stop runner, whose is capable of carrying the ball upfield, was ruled out for the season in December.
Massimo Luongo was subsequently signed in January to fill the void, but he’s missed the last two games with an unspecified injury.
Lee Evans, who was arguably Town’s stand-out player during the first third of the season, missed a big chunk of games between October and December and now looks set for another prolonged spell on the sidelines.
That's left just captain Sam Morsy and 19-year-old Cameron Humphreys as the only two options for the engine room of late.
Is Morsy, who has started all bar one league game, showing signs of fatigue? He’s certainly not breaking into the box late with the same regularity of old.
Humphreys, meanwhile, is what he is – a very talented teenager who is still developing physically and learning on the job.
Hopefully Luongo can play his part during the run-in.
WOUNDED FANBASE
No-one can question the backing that Ipswich Town fans have given their club this season, both in numbers and noise.
The repeated false dawns and disappointments of the last 10-15 years have left deep scars though – and they’re starting to be reopened.
Seeing Morsy exchange angry words with fans at the final whistle in midweek brought back memories of Toto Nsiala at Charlton in December 2021.
It’s only natural that many are fearing the worst at the moment. Some will express that through quiet nerves, some will let it out through frustrated words at games and on social media.
For me, it’s up to the team to lift the fans now, not the other way around.
THE EYE TEST
Sometimes you have to look beyond results and ask yourself what level the performance was at.
Right up until the festive period you could say that the Blues had arguably deserved more in most of, if not all of, the games they’d dropped points in.
I’m not sure that’s been the case from Christmas onwards though.
Can anyone say, with real conviction, that Town played well enough to win against Portsmouth, Lincoln, Plymouth, Oxford, Cambridge, Sheffield Wednesday and Bristol Rovers?
It’s the downward trending performances, rather than results, which probably concerns me the most at the moment.
UNDER PRESSURE
Ipswich finished 11th last season. Was it always a big ask for them to tranform into a top-two side in one season? I don't think it was.
A supercharged takeover can provide the shortcut to success. Look at what Wigan and Newcastle have done in the last year or so.
McKenna had six months to get his feet under the table before this season.
There has been time to mould this squad in a considered way over the last two transfer windows.
Three players have been signed for seven-figure fees. This squad cost around £10m to assemble. It boasts more than 1,500 Championship appearances across the combined CVs. Several have tasted promotion in the past.
The players are supported by a huge backroom team of specialists. They regularly stay in hotels the night before away games. They flew up to Manchester for the recent FA Cup game at Burnley. They've got new pristine pitches and upgraded facilities at the training ground.
Does all that comfort dovetail with the 'running towards adversity' mantra?
Yes, we're putting pressure on these players. But pressure is a privilege.
THE RUN-IN
Town now have 15 games left: Forest Green (h), MK Dons (a), Burton (h), Accrington (h), Bolton (a), Shrewsbury (h), Barnsley (a), Derby (a), Wycombe (h), Cheltenham (a), Charlton (h), Port Vale (h), Peterborough (a), Exeter (h), Fleetwood (a).
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