Ipswich Town host Plymouth Argyle in a battle of two League One heavyweights this weekend. Andy Warren looks at how the two sides match up.
The standings
We know how the table looks.
Plymouth are top with 57 points from 26 matches, with Town seven points back on 50, having played one game less.
In between the two weekend opponents are Sheffield Wednesday, who sit two points ahead of Town and five back from Argyle.
Town could narrow the gap to the leaders to four with a win this weekend and would also hold a game in hand, while an Argyle victory would stretch their advantage to 10 points.
There is a lot at stake here.
The systems
Ipswich’s system is a fluid one but, broadly speaking, it’s a 4-2-3-1 which can sometimes look a bit like a 3-4-2-1.
That’s because Janoi Donacien can tuck inside on the right, freeing Leif Davis to attack from a high position on the left flank, with an attacking midfielder sitting narrowly inside him and Wes Burns flying from the right.
It’s fluid, flexible, adaptable and effective. All things Kieran McKenna spoke about when taking charge of Town a little more than a year ago.
Plymouth’s philosophy is similar. With a few variations over the course of the season, Steven Schumacher’s side have operated in a 3-4-2-1 and match Ipswich’s principles in many ways.
It should be a fascinating encounter.
The keepers
Both teams will probably claim to have the best goalkeeper in the division – and both Christian Walton and Michael Cooper certainly have a claim to that crown.
Both are Plymouth youth graduates, with Walton a former Argyle season ticket holder who moved to Brighton at 16 and Cooper staying the course and making it into the first team.
He’s only 23 and, whether Argyle go up or not, will almost certainly be playing above League One next season.
Both keepers have played every minute of every league game for their teams and both have conceded exactly a goal a game over the course of the campaign.
Cooper has been far the busier, making an average of 3.7 saves per match to Walton’s 1.6. The same difference is true of their teams, with Plymouth allowing an average of 13 shots on their goal in every match, while Town’s stat there is a league-best 7.3.
Does, then, the fact the two teams concede goals at the same rate despite the huge difference in shots faced reflect badly on Walton?
There have certainly been some goals conceded that a keeper of his quality would be unhappy with of late, but that’s perhaps a little simplistic. He’s clearly a top goalkeeper at this level and, no doubt, neither of these teams would swap their goalkeeper for the other.
VERDICT: Can’t be separated
The defences
Slight differences here, in that Plymouth’s backline is strictly a three and Ipswich’s shifts between a three and a four.
But they are comparable.
Argyle will likely line-up with a back three of former Town player-of-the-year James Wilson, Nigel Lonwijk and the impressive Dan Scarr. Town’s three would be, in all likelihood, Donacien, Luke Woolfenden and Cameron Burgess, with Davis the fourth man as an attacking left-back.
Both defences concede a goal a game but, as we’ve already discussed, Ipswich are better at limiting the amount of shots their opponents are able to have.
The Ipswich defence has only conceded 11 open play goals this season, while Argyle have scored the most in open play at 33, one ahead of Town.
The Blues lead the league in set piece goals with 13 scored this season, but Plymouth’s defence have only conceded three. Only Barnsley and Accrington have a better record.
Town have struggled from dead ball situations at times, conceding the third-most in the league with 10. Scoring from them isn’t a strength for Argyle, though, they’ve only scored three all season.
It feels like all of those defensive stats cancel each other out.
VERDICT: Can’t be separated
The engine room
Whichever way you want to describe these two systems, both teams operate with two central midfielders.
For Ipswich it’s likely to be captain Sam Morsy and Lee Evans, while Plymouth have been using Jordan Houghton and Adam Randell.
The eye test tell you this is a position of strength for Ipswich and the stats back that up. Morsy and Evans trump the Plymouth duo, as well as contributor Matt Butcher, when the two teams’ midfielders are combined in the vast majority of the leading statistical categories for midfielders, covering tackling, passing, interceptions and how often they are beaten by dribblers through the middle of the pitch.
Morsy and Evans are one and two when it comes to passing in the entire league, both in terms of volume and accuracy.
The same is true when it comes to shooting, with the Ipswich pair managing more shots per game and scoring more goals (five to two) than their midfield opposition.
That being said, Plymouth have new signing Jay Matete to throw into the mix, with the possibility of a first league start at Portman Road for the on-loan Sunderland man. We’ve seen him impress against Ipswich before, while with Fleetwood, leading to Town interest in the transfer window which followed.
VERDICT: Advantage Ipswich
The width
Playing in wide areas is vital for both of these sides.
For Town, width on the right comes from Burns, with Davis operating on the left touchline.
For Argyle, it’s usually been captain Joe Edwards on the right and exciting Norwich loanee Bali Mumba on the left flank.
Town know all about Mumba, after he crashed in from range as Argyle beat Town at Home Park earlier in the season, and he’s clearly one of the best in the division.
The two wide men switched flanks at Bolton last weekend as Schumacher tweaked his tactics but, with Edwards sent off late in that game and suspended this weekend, Mumba is likely to return to the left and Saxon Earley come in to start on the right having joined from Norwich recently.
Mumba has four league goals this season, just as Burns does, with the two likely to be going up against each other on the same wing in this one. That will be a great battle.
Davis, though without a goal, is third on the League One assists list and second, behind Barry Bannan, in terms of ‘key passes’.
He’s a big asset.
VERDICT: Advantage Ipswich (just)
The attackers
Plymouth play with two No.10s and you can argue Ipswich do too, once the left-sider in this Ipswich system has tucked inside.
The big point here is that Plymouth have lost their main man in this area, with Morgan Whittaker recalled by Swansea earlier in the window. Finn Azaz is not back from injury yet, either.
Whittaker had nine goals and seven assists when he departed and Azaz has scored six before his injury in October. Both big losses.
In their places are Danny Mayor, a very good creative player but with only two assists and no goals to his name, and new signing Callum Wright. He’s not yet up to speed.
For Ipswich, Conor Chaplin is in great form, with seven goals in his last eight matches and a player-of-the-month award in his back pocket. He could be partnered by any one of Marcus Harness, Sone Aluko, Kyle Edwards or even new signing Nathan Broadhead from the start.
McKenna certainly has options.
VERDICT: Advantage Ipswich
The strikers
Now to the top end of the pitch.
You would imagine Freddie Ladapo would get the nod for this game, having been excellent in Ipswich’s defeat of Rotherham a week ago. He played with a fire in his belly which will surely endure this weekend, as another of his former clubs visit Portman Road.
There is also, of course, new signing George Hirst to factor in, with his Ipswich debut likely to come from the bench.
Plymouth have spread the goals and minutes around in attack. Ryan Hardie (8), Sam Cosgrove (6) and Niall Ennis (8) have all made significant contributions, with Schumacher able to rely on whichever one of his strikers he has called upon.
They have each started one of the last three games and it remains to be seen which frontman he will use at Portman Road.
VERDICT: Advantage Plymouth (just)
The conclusion
Factor all that in and Ipswich come out as narrow favourites for this game.
Helped by playing on home soil, in front of a big home crowd, Ipswich match up well with the league leaders in all areas of the pitch.
They are particularly strong in the middle of the field, though, while also holding advantages in wide areas and behind the strikers. There is also the prospect of two debuts for Broadhead and Hirst, too.
This will surely be a close game, but there are reasons to believe Ipswich have an edge, despite the two teams’ league positions.
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