Andrew Mann from JM Finn speaks about Black Friday spending and the cost-of-living crisis.

US-election fever is subsiding and the arrival of a shelf-sitting Elf in the house inevitably means that Christmas is fast approaching.

At some point we’ll reflect on the events of 2024 and look forward to 2025, but for now very little seems to be exciting markets.

Data in November showed that the UK economy barely grew in the third quarter of the year and actually contracted in September, which just goes to underline the challenges faced by the new Labour government.

This won’t come as any great surprise to households, with the most recent BRC-Opinium tracker revealing that 38% of the people surveyed thought the economy would get worse over the next three months compared to only 19% who thought it would get better.

Although headline inflation has returned close to the Bank of England’s target, prices remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels and for many the cost-of-living crisis remains in full swing.

Andrew Mann from JM FinnAndrew Mann from JM Finn (Image: JM Finn) Early indications are that although Black Friday spending once again increased online, prolonged discounting has done little to encourage people to visit the high street and things will need to improve in December to help mitigate the additional costs faced from next year.

One way or another it feels like it could remain a tough environment for traditional retail businesses unless something changes.

In the City, fresh dealmaking suggests further evidence that UK companies remain undervalued with a takeover approach from the UK’s biggest insurer Aviva for its smaller rival Direct Line.

Although the cash and shares bid has been pitched at a whopping 57.5% premium to Direct Line’s closing share price the day before, it has been rejected as both opportunistic and substantially undervaluing the company.

Analysts think that Aviva will need to dig deeper into its pockets to win this one, and it has until Christmas Day to make a firm offer or walk away.

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All views expressed are those of the author and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any products or securities.