Paul Geater's 2023 political predictions: New Suffolk MPs?

That's partly because there won't be a general election this year - and also because it seems pretty clear that the Tories have passed the point of no return and are bound to lose the next election whenever it is called.

I had thought Rishi Sunak would be looking to call the next election in the spring of 2024, to get it back to the May/June cycle that we've become used to over recent decades.

Now, though, I suspect he will try to hang on until nearer the legal end of the term.

I don't expect another Christmas time election like we had in 2019, but I do expect an autumn poll. Put a circle around October 24, 2024 - the last Thursday before the clocks go back!

To be honest it is difficult to imagine any circumstances in which the Tories will win the next general election whenever it is called.

Parties that have been in power for a long time effectively lose power years before they are finally defeated.

Just months after his surprise victory in the 1992 election, John Major effectively lost the next general election on Black Wednesday. (Image: PA Media)

John Major lost the 1997 election on Black Wednesday in September 1992. Gordon Brown lost the 2010 election with the international crash of 2008.

The Tories in 1994-97 and Labour in 2008-10 both ran highly competant economic policies for the time they were in government, but it made no difference with the voters.

However well or badly Mr Sunak does over the next two years, voters will not forget the Tories' chaos of 2021/2 when they reach the ballot box.

And, of course, boundary changes are due to come in over the next year with big changes in much of the county - including the creation of a new Waveney Valley seat straddling the Suffolk/Norfolk border.

We should get an indication of how deep the mire is for the Conservatives in May's local council elections in all districts.

In Suffolk many Conservatives expect to lose power in Mid Suffolk and for there to be no end to the personality-driven poilitics of Babergh.

Some Tories fear the rise of the Green Party and resurgence of the Lib Dems in some areas could threaten their position in both East and West Suffolk districts - but others feel they might be saved by a split opposition with councillors only prepared to do deals once votes have been cast.

This year's local elections will give an indication of how serious things are for the Conservatives in Suffolk. (Image: Archant)

Whatever happens the election results will be pored over by election strategists looking for clues about what might happen in 2024.

When the general election does come, the changes to the electoral map in Suffolk are unlikely to be that great.

Labour are strong favourites to regain Ipswich and will be hoping for success in the new Lowestoft seat - but that could be a tough nut for them to crack as Conservative Peter Aldous has built up a strong personal vote.

His 18,000 majority from 2019 would normally be seen as safe - but he will be losing what is normally good Conservative countryside around Bungay in General Elections and Labour has latched on to those changes go give themselves hope here.

In 1997 Labour won the Braintree and Harwich seats in north Essex - but boundary changes and new housing developments make that more difficult for them now.

However Labour does have realistic hopes of taking Colchester for the first time ever - the seat used to be a LibDem stronghold for Sir Bob Russell before Will Quince took it in 2015.

One seat that will be worth watching over the next two years is West Suffolk - not because it is likely to be a marginal at the general election, but because of what happens to outgoing MP Matt Hancock.

He's back from the Australian jungle - but will Matt Hancock now try to get back into the Conservative Parliamentary Party? (Image: PA Media)

The former health secretary has not regained the Conservative Whip in the House of Commons after his jaunt to the Australian jungle and he has suggested he is in no rush to return.

He's also announced he won't be standing again at the next general election.

But life as an Independent MP can be pretty lonely with no support from the Whips' office, no access to party meetings, and little opportunity to take part in parliamentary committee work.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in the Tory parliamentary party before too long - especially as he's made it quite clear that he supports most of the policies being followed by the Prime Minister.