As Britain heads out of the Brexit door, politicians and academics will be asking: “how did this happen?”
The Leave campaign has won all over the country, except for Scotland, Northern Ireland and London.
Council areas across the East of England were backing the Brexit option. Ipswich voted by 58% to 42% to Leave. Colchester and Chelmsford also voted out. Only Norwich, Cambridge, and a few councils in the south west of the East of England voted to remain.
Elsewhere in the country prosperous areas that had been expected to remain voted to leave – Canterbury, Milton Keynes, Coventry.
The result is a major shock for the bookies. All the late opinion polls suggested Remain would win, some predicted this would be by a significant margin.
As polling stations closed two exit polls predicted a remain victory – prompting UKIP leader Nigel Farage to concede at 11pm last night.
So how and why did this happen? Why did the British public reject all the advice from independent experts who warned a withdrawal from the EU would damage the country’s economy.
Why did the British public reject the advice from world leaders including President Obama, the prime ministers of leading Commonwealth countries, and other EU leaders to stay in the EU?
And what impact will this decision have on the economy in the short, medium and long term?
Firstly, those in Scotland and Northern Ireland will point out that it was not “The British” who voted out. It was the English and Welsh.
Every single region and city in Scotland voted to stay in the EU. Expect pressure for a second Scottish referendum on independence to start to build from later today. Alex Salmond has already raised the prospect.
The British electorate has delivered a “Stuff you” message to all the experts who predicted gloom and doom if we pull out of Europe.
The effect of the decision has already started. The pound has fallen. Share prices are falling steeply on unofficial trading – and the FTSE is expected to start significantly down when trading opens on Friday.
But how long will these effects last? It is too early to say – and the government will need to act fast to start talking to Europe to give investors confidence.
However the fact is anyone with shares or pension funds will have a nervous time over the next few weeks or months as the economy digests today’s bombshell.
Effectively voters have said they either don’t believe the warnings that there will be a uncertainty, and even a possible recession, or they think this is a price worth paying to “regain our independence.”
Now the questions will start about the future of the Prime Minister. Will Mr Cameron stand down in weeks or months . . . or days?
And the Labour Party will be particularly worried about leave winning many of its seats in the north of England and in the midlands.
There will also be serious worries about the impact of the campaign on communities across the country.
The way that immigration became such a big issue caused great disquiet to many people.
Many believe this swung many votes towards the Leave side – especially in working class areas in the north of England and in parts of the country that have seen many EU workers arrive, areas like the Fens and Lincolnshire.
Some of the language used by some of those on the Leave side has been seen as extreme – and politicians and community leaders will have to work hard to bring people together again.
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